Saturday, February 25, 2006

Red Sox Preview - Pitching

Note: For brevity's sake, I'm going to do the starting and relief pitching together and in a bit of a different format...I know most of you will greatly appreciate this.

Team: Boston Red Sox
Position: Pitcher
Probable Starters: Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Matt Clement, Bronson Arroyo, Tim Wakefield (for arguements sake I'm going to assume that Wells is getting traded and the Papelbon is not yet ready to be a starter)
Relievers: Johnathan Papelbon, David Riske, Mike Timlin, Keith Foulke, Leonard DiNardo, Rudy Seanez, Julian Tavarez

For both starters and relievers I'm going to answer what I see as the 3 most serious questions facing Red Sox pitching this year.

STARTERS
1) Are Schilling and Beckett healthy?
With Schilling, I believe that he is finally recovered from the ankle injury that nagged him all of 2005. I definitely see Schilling returning to form this season. Although I don't see him being completely dominant like the old Schilling (I think age and his body may be catching up to him), I still believe he will utterly dominate some games this year. I do think he will hit the DL atleast once this year, but only for something minor and for just a quick 15 day stint.
To me, Beckett is a bigger worry here. We are talking about a guy who has never thrown 180 innings or more in a season. Not only are the weird recurring blister problems, but there are constant whispers about a possible shoulder problem as well. I see Beckett being solid, but I still don't think he reaches 200+ innings this year. Good thing the Sox have a deep rotation.
2) Will left-handed hitting kill the Red Sox this year?
If, when Wells is traded, that leaves Boston with no lefty starter to match up with the likes of Damon, Giambi, and Matsui in division play and players like Konerko, Thome, Haffner, Teixeira, or Chavex possibly in the playoffs. I think this could come back to bite Boston.
3)Will starting pitching have to carry the team?
Beyond Manny and Papi, this Red Sox team has more questions on offense then any in recent memory. The place it most improved and kept its strong core was in the starting rotation. I'd look for many more lower scoring games this year with the starters asked to work deeper into games with the question marks in the bullpen. With the nice mix of youth and experience, this Boston staff could very well carry them to the playoffs.

RELIEVERS
1) Is Foulke healthy?
This will be a huge thing to look for early in the season. Foulke claims his bad knees (which cost him most of his 2005 season and made him look horrible when he was playing) are now healthy and the shoulder pain, caused by compensating for his knee pain, is gone as well. Beyond the physical stuff, Foulke must also get past last year mentally. From personal issues, injuries, and the negativity the Boston crowd gave him while struggling, Foulke has more than a sore knee to bounce back from. I think he'll be a top 25 closer again, but I think the lights out Foulke is gone. Look for 30 saves, but an ERA above 3.00.
2) In late innings, can they get the lefties out?
Much like with the starters, this may be an issue for Boston. Boston is only carrying one left-handed reliever in their bullpen, Leonard DiNardo who has appeared in 30 career games and was actually worse against lefties than righties last year. Papelbon will have to step up here (he held lefties to .190 BA last year) if Boston is to succeed. Much like with the starting pitching, this could be an issue and Theo "the boy wonder GM" will need to work some magic to make them better.
3) Who else will step up this year?
We all know Timlin was lights out last year (and hopefully his arm doesn't fall off this year from how much they used him), but who else will be a go-to guy in the bullpen. DiNardo? Tavarez? I wouldn't bank on it. Look for Papelbon (as long as he doesn't have to jump to the starting rotation) and Riske (WHIP under 1.00 and an ERA hovering around 3.00 last year) to make the biggest impacts for the Red Sox bullpen outside of Timlin and Foulke. I think most of the other guys will just be inning eaters.

1 Comments:

At 5:05 PM, Blogger Chachi said...

He may be Mr. Leyland.

 

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